Posted: 14 month(s) and 18 days(s) ago   |   0 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 2 0
Posted by: WallStNick

With all the uncertainty in today's economy, many investors look at the stock market like a leper colony.

But there are a lot of very sound opportunities in the stock market.

Here's a list of the Top 10 Stocks for 2009, as first reported by MSN Money senior markets editor, Jim Jubak:

The 5 best stocks for the first half of 2009

• Deere (NYSE: DE), a farm machine producer that tracks the price of agricultural commodities. Yield: 3.1%. 

• Enbridge (TSX: ENB), a natural-gas and oil pipeline company that has a 3.8% yield.

• ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), the world's best integrated oil company for the current environment. With a yield of 2%, these shares just make my cut.

• Flowserve (NYSE: FLS). Can you say infrastructure? It makes pumps and valves for moving everything from water to oil and has a yield of 2%.

• Rayonier (NYSE: RYN), a producer of wood products and an owner of timberland. Yield: 7.2%.

The 5 best stocks for the second half of 2009

• Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), the world's low-cost producer of gold.

• Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), the dominant Internet search company just gets more dominant.

• HSBC (NYSE:HBC), the best banking franchise left standing in Asia.

• Petrobras (NYSE: PBR). The Brazilian national oil company has dozens of new fields under development.

• Thompson Creek Metals (TSX: TC), the second-largest private producer of molybdenum in the world.

Here are a few words from Jubak's article on how and when to invest in these stocks:

 My selection of the 10 best stocks for 2009 -- and my strategy for when to invest in them -- is designed to help you do three things:

• Make some money (although not a lot of money) in the first half of the year.

• Get you into position for a rally in the fall.

• Make sure your portfolio is ready for 2010, when the economy itself is likely to be in recovery mode and the major long-term trends driving the global economy will be your key to market-beating returns.

Always thinking ahead

Stock prices are built on anticipation. The market indexes had been falling for months before we got the initial gross-domestic-product numbers in October showing the economy had started to contract in the third quarter. And stocks have kept falling since then as investors have anticipated that the economy would contract even more -- maybe at an annual rate of 4% or 5% -- in the three months that end in December.

Anticipation of an end to the recession and an economic recovery will start stocks moving up again well before the recession is actually over. The historical record shows that stocks start to recover, on average, about two quarters (or six months) before an economic recession ends.

In other words, if the U.S. recession ends in the fourth quarter of 2009 or, more likely, in the first quarter of 2010, then we can expect stocks to rally starting in the summer or fall of 2009.

Timing is tricky

Timing the turn can't be exact. There's the risk of being early. The U.S. economy could struggle for longer than I now expect, and stocks could linger at low levels into 2010.

But there's also a risk of being late. If the bottom for the Chinese economy is in the second quarter of 2009, as Goldman Sachs now projects, then the global economy would start to pick up before the fourth quarter of 2009, and stocks would be likely to rally earlier than the fall of 2009.

So 2009 presents quite a strategic challenge.

In the first half -- or even three-quarters -- of 2009, you'll need to play defense. (But you don't want to be completely on the sidelines, just in case growth in China does bottom in the second quarter.) That means losing as little money as possible as stocks continue to founder while picking up a few percentage points of return here or there.

In the first part of 2009, I'd be very happy with anything like a 5% return from a stock portfolio. (Why not just stick it in supersafe Treasury bills or notes, you ask? Have you seen the yield on T-bills lately? It's as close to zero as you can get.)

Then toward the end of the year, move more of your portfolio to offense, without taking on a huge risk in case your timing is off. We know from the end of other bear markets that the first months of a bull market can produce explosive returns. But bear markets are notorious for producing final rallies that pull investors in and then fail, sending the early birds reeling to yet more losses.

Building a core

So what kind of stock picks could possibly work in that kind of uncertain and labyrinthine market? I'd suggest these 10 culled from the 50 in my new book, "The Jubak Picks." (I'll post the full list of 50 when the book comes out Dec. 30. This long-term portfolio will replace my existing 50 Best Stocks in the World list. You'll be able to find a link to it near the top in the left margin of every column, just under my 12- to 18-month portfolio.)

Why did I pick these 10 from the 50 in my book to be my best picks for 2009?

First, these stocks offer what I'd like to see now and for the next six to nine months: safety, a modest dividend return of at least 2% to 4% and some upside leverage if the global economy delivers a positive growth surprise. And second, they offer what I'd like to see for later: exposure to the most timely of the 10 long-term macro-investing trends that I describe in my book. (You can find a list of these 10 trends in my Oct. 21 column, "10 trends for long-term gains.") By buying these stocks, I start creating the core of a long-term portfolio for the five years or more after this bear market.

Use some cash to ease your way into positions in the five stocks in my picks for the first half of 2009 on dips in the stock market. Look for a stretch of days when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is sitting near 840, which looks like a bottom for this stage of the bear at least.

Or you can also start to dollar-cost average into these stocks. That's an especially useful method if you are a beginning investor starting a portfolio.

Don't rush into investing all your cash. Remember this is still a high-risk bear market. And you want to have cash on hand to invest in my best stocks for the second half of 2009 when the time is right in the fall.

If you're a beginning investor or have moved all your cash to the sidelines, I'd suggest buying at a pace that puts about 25% of the cash that you ultimately want to devote to stocks into the market by mid-2009.

How to rebalance

If you're already invested, as I am in Jubak's Picks, I suggest rebalancing your existing portfolio using these dividend-paying stocks to replace other stocks in the sector that don't pay you to wait. If the stock allocation of your portfolio is already 50% or more in the market, I wouldn't recommend increasing that commitment to stocks now.

I've got Jubak's Picks at almost 50% in cash as of Dec. 16. That means I've got just 50% of my stock portfolio actually in stocks. (I run an all-stock portfolio on these pages. You, I assume, have some money in other instruments, such as bonds. I'm writing here only about the stock portion of your portfolio.) And I'm trying to keep my cash position at roughly that level even as I shift the portfolio to take advantage of the current opportunities in the market.

Think about gradually putting another 25% of your cash to work in the fall -- if it looks like the economic scenario that I outlined at the beginning of this column is working out as projected. Increase that buying if the recovery seems nearer than the end of 2009 -- or if we get a major "buy" signal from technical indicators. Hold off or slow down your buying if the economy sinks deeper and faster than economists currently project. Remember this second group of five stocks isn't designed to pay you to wait.

Don't try to hit a home run in 2009. You're likely to wind up whiffing. A solid single or two, maybe even a double, would be enough to turn 2009 into a better year for you than just about anybody expects right now.

Read the complete article here. 

At the time of publication, Jim Jubak owned or controlled shares of the following companies mentioned in this column: Deere, Enbridge, Flowserve, Goldcorp, Petrobras, Rayonier and Thompson Creek Metals. He did not hold short positions in any company mentioned.

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Posted: 15 month(s) and 14 days(s) ago   |   1 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 1 0
Posted by: WallStNick

President-elect Barack Obama is focusing his economic recovery strategy on making the biggest investment in the nation’s infrastructure since President Dwight D. Eisenhower created the interstate highway system a half- century ago.

Speaking yesterday at a Chicago news conference and on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Obama said state governors have many such projects that are “shovel ready,” meaning they could be undertaken swiftly and have an immediate impact on jobs.

He declined to specify a price tag for the stimulus, saying his advisers are “busy working, crunching the numbers, looking at the macroeconomic data to make a determination as to what the size and the scope of the economic recovery plan needs to be. But it is going to be substantial.” (Read this article in its entirety, here) 

Here are a few companies that are in the building of building. 

AECOM Technology Corporation (ACM) is a Los Angeles, California based company which provides architecture, engineering, construction management, project management, asset management, and environmental consulting services to governments and industry. Their P/E is 27.97 and their PEG is 1.12.

Cemex (CX), which is a Mexican company, produces and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and other construction materials for the construction industry. The stock carries a P/E of 11.9, a PEG of 3.82, and a yield of 2.4%.

Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI), which is not based in Chicago, but in the Netherlands of all places, provides engineering, procurement, and construction services to the oil and gas, water, metals, and mining industries around the world. The stock has a P/E of 27.55, a PEG of 1.68, and a yield of 0.4%.

Fluor (FLR) is in the business of providing engineering, procurement, and construction and maintenance services around the world. The stock has a P/E of 40.31, a PEG of 1.73, and a yield of 0.7%.

Foster Wheeler (FWLT) provides engineering and construction services to the power plant, power generation, and oil and gas industries. The company has a P/E of 20.09 and a PEG of 1.5.

Granite Construction (GVA) is a California based heavy civil construction contractor which is working on the Woodrow Wilson Bridge in Alexandria, Virginia. . The P/E is 27.8, the PEG is 1.7, and the yield is 0.7%.

Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (JEC) provides engineering, architectural, technical, professional, and construction services to industrial and governmental organizations. The P/E is 30.6 and the PEG is 1.49.

Lafarge SA (LR) is a France based company which sells construction materials all over the world, including cement, aggregates, concrete, and gypsum. The stock has a P/E of 12.33 and a yield of 1.8%.

McDermott (MDR) has a government operations division which provides many services to various U.S. Government-owned facilities, including uranium processing, environmental site restoration services, utility and industrial power generation systems, and boilers. They also engineer offshore drilling and production facilities. The stock has a P/E of 21.94 and a PEG of 1.26.

Meadow Valley (MVCO), a Phoenix, Arizona based company involved in heavy construction. They also make and sell ready-mix concrete, sand, and gravel products. The stock has a P/E of 16.46 and a P/S of 0.35. It appears that no analysts cover this company.

Michael Baker Corporation (BKR), founded in Pennsylvania in 1940, provides engineering services, design-build services, construction management, consulting, planning, surveying, mapping, geographic information systems, and architectural services to both governments and the private sector. The stock has a P/E of 25.55 and a P/S of 0.49.

Perini Corporation (PCR) is a Massachusetts based company which provides general contracting, construction management, and design-build services to both the public and private sectors. The P/E is 24.63 and the PEG is 1.51.

Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK) provides consulting, engineering, and technical services in the area of civil infrastructure. The P/E is 26.6 and the PEG is 2.04.

URS Corp. (URS) provides engineering and technical design services to federal, state, and local government agencies, along with private industry. The P/E is 20.97 and the PEG is 1.35.

Willdan Group (WLDN) is an Anaheim, California based company, located down the street from Disneyland. It provides civil engineering, building and safety, and geotechnical engineering services to small and medium size governmental agencies. The stock has a P/E of 10.04 and a price sales ratio of 0.89. (Read this article in its entirety, here) 

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Posted: 15 month(s) and 21 days(s) ago   |   1 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 0 0
Posted by: WallStNick

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Asked to describe his performance this year, value manager Bill Miller said that "terrible," "disastrous" and "awful" are words that come to mind. But Miller is expecting better for himself and other value managers in the coming year.

It looks as if the "bottom was made" in the stock market earlier this year, both from a psychology standpoint and "from what we've seen in the credit markets," said Miller, chairman and chief investment officer of Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc.'s (LM) Legg Mason Capital Management Inc.

If we aren't going to have 20% unemployment and gross domestic product down 15% or 20%, historical odds favor the market being up well over 20% in the next year, Miller said at the money manager's year-end briefing.

"Panic is really hard to sustain," said Miller, so the worst case for next year "is the market just moving sideways."

Any recovery from this year's slaughter, however slight, would likely be a welcome respite for Miller. His Legg Mason Value Trust (LMNVX), which outperformed the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive calendar years through the beginning of 2006, is down more than 59% this year through Tuesday and more than 12% over five years, according to Morningstar Inc. In comparison, the average large blend fund has lost about 42.4% this year through Tuesday, and is down about 3.3% over five years, Morningstar said.

"We have performed far worse than I would have predicted we would," said Miller. "We have had maybe a tougher time than most value investors, but few are doing well because value spreads have widened." When those spreads start to narrow, value managers should do very well, he said.

Miller said he has seen characteristics of late that are consistent with a market bottom, such as a series of lows over a course of a few months. No one knows for sure whether those signs mark the end of this bear market or just a bear-market rally, he said. But Miller echoed Warren Buffett, saying, "If you can buy U.S. equities at these prices, you are likely to do well over time."

Value Trust is experiencing redemptions, though they have been "pretty steady" over the past year or so, meaning that they haven't accelerated or declined over the period, Miller said.

The fund is pretty much fully invested, though its cash position is currently higher than its normal "1% or so," he said. "It's not like we are sitting out there with 30% or 40% in cash like a lot of hedge funds are."

What he's trying to do and what he believes other value managers are trying to do is to "keep moving your capital to where it can give you the best risk- adjusted returns over whatever time horizon," Miller said.

Since the end of the second quarter, there's been "a pure scramble for liquidity," he said. "People sold without regard to value." As a result, quality is very cheap now, Miller said.

The only place where relative values aren't as good is the consumer staples sector as well as companies regarded as bulletproof, such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Miller said. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) is a good example, he said. He noted that at one point a few days ago, Colgate traded at a higher price/earnings multiple than Google Inc. (GOOG), likely because Google is younger and less well-known. Google was one of Value Trust's weakest performers in the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to a regulatory filing made Tuesday.

The Value Trust fund currently holds Time Warner Inc. (TWX), which closed at $ 9.11 Wednesday, and Citigroup Inc. (C), which closed at $7.82, but nothing else in the single digits, Miller said.

The fund took a stake in credit-card company American Express Co. (AXP) in the third quarter, according to the filing Tuesday. "You can buy now the No. 1 companies in a wide variety of industries" very cheaply, Miller said when asked about that purchase.

Value Trust also added positions in Bank of America Corp. (BAC), EMC Corp. ( EMC), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), NYSE Euronext (NYX) and 3M Co. (MMM) in the third quarter, according to the SEC filing. Among the stocks the fund sold were American International Group Inc. (AIG), Countrywide Financial Corp., Expedia Inc. (EXPE), Freddie Mac (FRE), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), according to the filing. Bank of America bought Countrywide in July.

Among Value Trust's top 10 holdings as of Sept. 30 were Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) , Citigroup, Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD), General Electric Co. (GE), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Eastman Kodak Co. (EK).

Asked how far along we are in the delevering process, Miller made it clear that things can change quickly.

"There is a huge amount of cash sitting out there on the sidelines," he said. "To the extent that that cash starts coming in, delevering will essentially be over."

Miller said the Federal Reserve should "buy everything in sight" because "the taxpayer is going to make a killing." There is virtually no investor who doesn't believe there is value in the market, he said.

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Posted: 15 month(s) and 28 days(s) ago   |   1 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 2 0
Posted by: WallStNick

Stock #1

After hitting its 52-week high of more than $100 at the start of the year, JEC now trades for under $30 per share. The company held up well for the first half of the year, but the credit crisis, as has been the case across the entire spectrum, was too much to endure. Investors sold en masse believing that a deep recession or worse was upon.

Well, that may be, but not if our new President has anything to say about matters. Riding a white horse with bags of cash, the new American administration has all but promised big spending in order to prevent a dangerous deflationary spiral. JEC will be a big beneficiary of stimulus spending and a bargain at these prices.

Stock #2:

General Electric (GE)

Any company with exposure to the credit markets has been absolutely crushed in this market. That is certainly the case with General Electric (GE).

Already struggling to regain its footing, the company lost nearly one half of its market capitalization over the last two months. As a good friend of mine says, there is no need to make things difficult in a portfolio. There are so many blue chip companies that have lost substantial value and yet offer compelling growth potential. That is the case with GE.

Add in a dividend yield of more than 8%, and investors get paid to wait for a more normal economic business cycle to kick in. Even the Great Depression ended at some point. The same will happen here. Buying GE at these prices is too good to resist.

Check out this Wall St. Network interview w/ GE's Marketing Manager, Steve Peterson. (2008)

Stock #3:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

When markets fall rapidly, investors that use leverage can be burned. Margin calls have certainly added to the volatility of the recent bear market, but one would never expect the CEO of a company to be forced to liquidate an entire position as was the case with Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

Bad enough that the entire oil and gas complex was collapsing under the weight of overleveraged speculation, CHK lost more than 50% of its value helped in part by margin selling by its CEO. Wise investors will recognize that such selling has nothing to do with the future prospects of CHK. Natural gas can be expected to play a significant role in any alternative energy program. CHK will benefit as a result.

Stock #4:

Pulte Homes (PHM)

Tired of people calling a bottom in the homebuilding sector? Me too, but this time may be different. I'm calling a bottom in the homebuilding sector.

Demographics alone are creating pent-up demand that will surely help the homebuilders going forward. So too will subsidized mortgages that may be coming in the near future. By that I mean 30-year fixed rate loans at 4% or so. Such a move would do wonders to spur buying in the market. That buying will eat up inventory that is currently hurting builders.

PHM is trading near its lows again after rallying strongly. An earlier call for the bottom in the sector may have been too early. That is not the case today. I'd be a buyer of PHM.

Stock #5:

Tesoro Petroleum (TSO)

Volatility is a killer in the oil refining business. With oil prices fluctuating like a yo-yo on steroids, the entire oil refining sector has been in the dumps in 2008. That can be expected to change in 2009.

One of my favorite names in the space is Tesoro Petroleum (TSO). Its shares have dropped by more than 85% over the last year as oil prices became the victim of excessive and highly leveraged speculation.

If the new administration has the nerve to limit leverage in the oil pits, the refiners stand to benefit greatly as oil prices would be much less volatile. The capacity issues of the last few years have not changed. It has been quite some time since a new oil refinery was built, and that lack of capacity will bode well for TSO.

Stock #6:

Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI)

Huge increases in oil prices fueled project and infrastructure spending for the entire industry. Such a state benefits firms like Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) that specializes in building huge projects for the industry. The problem for CBI is that lower oil prices results in reduced spending for capital projects. Its shares have fallen off a cliff since oil peaked in July.

Now selling for slightly more than $5 per share, CBI is incredibly cheap. Though lower, oil prices are still at a relatively high level. Big infrastructure projects are still under way according to the major oil and gas companies. Even better for CBI is the movement to natural gas as a key to alternative energy plans. Liquid natural gas terminals can be expected to be in high demand as a result. I love CBI at these prices, and you should, too.

Stock #7:

Mosaic (MOS)

One of the hottest sectors at the end of this bull market was fertilizer companies. Demand for food and agricultural needs across the globe took hold of stocks like Mosaic (MOS). The momentum crowd really did a job here. In the last year alone, MOS nearly tripled in value only to lose all of the gains and then some. The stock is down nearly 85% from its peak.

I call the action here forced hedge fund selling. Redemptions at the huge funds result in sales of perfectly good stocks like MOS. While the stock did indeed go higher than it should have, I am convinced the fall has been too severe. This company makes good money that shows no signs of abating. In fact, demand for ethanol should increase under the new administration with ties to agriculture. I would take advantage of the forced selling in MOS and establish a position at these prices.

Stock #8:

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

The corn craze collapsed earlier this year as negative consequences of ethanol production came to the fore. The spotlight focused on the fact that corn production did little to reach its stated goal of reducing carbon emissions. Rapid increases in farming for corn resulted in water and energy use that exceeded any benefits, or so goes the argument against ethanol. When oil prices collapsed, that was the excuse that traders needed to dump the agriculture play. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) lost half its value in the carnage.

Unlike the fertilizer play, ADM, though it had enjoyed solid growth, exhibited more Rational tendencies with respect to its valuation during all of this craziness. As such, losing half its value in this bear market is an opportunity for investors. I'm jumping on board making ADM one of Top 10 for 2009.

Stock #9:

Transocean, Inc. (RIG)

The drill, baby drill crowd did not win the election, but fear not oil drilling is not disappearing anytime soon. Although pressure for alternative energy will increase in the near future, solutions are a long way off. In addition, there is reason to be optimistic that the Obama Presidency will reach across the aisle in regard to all issues. That means a prior willingness to open offshore drilling may still be on the table. If so, companies like Transocean, Inc. (RIG) will do just fine thank you.

Oh, and don't forget OPEC. Do you really think they will let go of $100 oil so easily? Think again. Crude is still the energy necessity of a growing economy. When our economy recovers, and it will eventually, owning RIG will be a wise decision. I think that time starts in 2009.

Stock #10:

Fluor Corporation (FLR)

The President-Elect announced this past weekend a plan to add 2.5 million new jobs during the first two years of his time in office. Focusing on roads, bridges and schools that have been neglected for many years, a rebuilding boom of epic proportion appears to be in the works. This should not be a surprise given that the current crisis is being compared to the Great Depression.

I guess a big crisis requires a big government solution. No matter debating the political merits or lack thereof of such a response. Big spending is coming, and heavy construction-oriented companies like Fluor Corporation (FLR) will be huge beneficiaries. Of the 10 stocks in this gallery, FLR may be the one to buy before the end of the year. In fact, of the 10 on the list, this one is my favorite.

Check out this Wall St. Network interview with Fluor's CFO, Ken Lockwood. (2005)

Read the article as it was originally published, here.  

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Posted: 16 month(s) and 4 days(s) ago   |   4 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 3 0
Posted by: WallStNick

The following article was published on 11/17.  

As we discussed in previous articles, one of the best and easiest ways to screen for new investment ideas is by monitoring the activity and holdings of successful fund managers. The aim of Morningstar's Small-Cap Superstars is to combine some of the best ideas from our favorite small-cap fund managers with those of our fellow analysts here at Morningstar.

Our Methodology 
As a reminder, deciding which stocks to highlight as picks is pretty simple: First, the stock must have a Morningstar Rating of 5 stars, and second, it must be held by at least a handful of the 25 small-cap fund managers on our watch list (see below). We also consider the size of the holding in the respective funds as well as the funds' recent trading activity as ways to further refine our selection process.

Our Two New Picks 
After running our screens and analyzing the respective merits of the Superstars' holdings, two stocks met our criteria. Both stocks trade at substantial discounts to our estimates of their fair value and each is held by five of our favorite small-cap fund managers. In addition, we believe that these companies are in solid financial shape and that they benefit from strong competitive advantages.

Our first pick is narrow-moat rated Resources Global Professionals (RECN). The project-based consulting firm provides experienced temporary labor, specializing in complex projects. Backed by a highly competent workforce, Resources has been able to establish and build strong relationships with its clients, including 84 companies in the Fortune 100. Stock analyst Vishnu Lekraj believes the quality of the firm's projects and temporary workforce feed upon each other to form a strong network, making it a preferred provider for both businesses and workers. Also, unlike a typical consultancy, Resources employs its workers on a project basis and pays them an hourly rate instead of an annual salary, which allows for more flexibility in meeting its clients' needs. Lekraj also notes that the firm delivers very high returns on invested capital. Risks include clients putting off projects in these difficult economic times and a shrinking pool of highly experienced and skilled labor as baby boomers approach retirement.

Our second pick is wide-moat rated Landstar System (LSTR), which has established a broad asset-light freight shipping network across North America. According to stock analyst Keith Schoonmaker, the cost and time required to replicate Landstar's extensive system (including 1,397 agents, 25,000 truck broker carriers, and 9,000 Landstar-dedicated drivers) serves as a barrier to entry that discourages new entrants to the national truck brokerage market. The company benefits from a strong network effect, whereby Landstar's huge roster of shippers and truckers makes a relationship with Landstar more valuable to both parties. Landstar's low asset intensity enables the firm to deliver very high returns on invested capital and its independent contractor broker model minimizes fixed costs. Risks include exposure to the cyclical trucking market as well as traffic accidents. 

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Posted: 16 month(s) and 4 days(s) ago   |   0 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 0 0
Posted by: WallStNick

With all the uncertainty in today's economy, many investors look at the stock market like a leper colony.

But there are a lot of very sound opportunities in the stock market for investors to make money.

Here's a list of the Top 10 Stocks for 2009, as first reported by MSN Money senior markets editor, Jim Jubak:

The 5 best stocks for the first half of 2009

• Deere (NYSE: DE), a farm machine producer that tracks the price of agricultural commodities. Yield: 3.1%. 

• Enbridge (TSX: ENB), a natural-gas and oil pipeline company that has a 3.8% yield.

• ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), the world's best integrated oil company for the current environment. With a yield of 2%, these shares just make my cut.

• Flowserve (NYSE: FLS). Can you say infrastructure? It makes pumps and valves for moving everything from water to oil and has a yield of 2%.

• Rayonier (NYSE: RYN), a producer of wood products and an owner of timberland. Yield: 7.2%.

The 5 best stocks for the second half of 2009

• Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), the world's low-cost producer of gold.

• Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), the dominant Internet search company just gets more dominant.

• HSBC (NYSE:HBC), the best banking franchise left standing in Asia.

• Petrobras (NYSE: PBR). The Brazilian national oil company has dozens of new fields under development.

• Thompson Creek Metals (TSX: TC), the second-largest private producer of molybdenum in the world.

Here are a few words from Jubak's article on how and when to invest in these stocks:

 My selection of the 10 best stocks for 2009 -- and my strategy for when to invest in them -- is designed to help you do three things:

• Make some money (although not a lot of money) in the first half of the year.

• Get you into position for a rally in the fall.

• Make sure your portfolio is ready for 2010, when the economy itself is likely to be in recovery mode and the major long-term trends driving the global economy will be your key to market-beating returns.

Always thinking ahead

Stock prices are built on anticipation. The market indexes had been falling for months before we got the initial gross-domestic-product numbers in October showing the economy had started to contract in the third quarter. And stocks have kept falling since then as investors have anticipated that the economy would contract even more -- maybe at an annual rate of 4% or 5% -- in the three months that end in December.

Anticipation of an end to the recession and an economic recovery will start stocks moving up again well before the recession is actually over. The historical record shows that stocks start to recover, on average, about two quarters (or six months) before an economic recession ends.

In other words, if the U.S. recession ends in the fourth quarter of 2009 or, more likely, in the first quarter of 2010, then we can expect stocks to rally starting in the summer or fall of 2009.

Timing is tricky

Timing the turn can't be exact. There's the risk of being early. The U.S. economy could struggle for longer than I now expect, and stocks could linger at low levels into 2010.

But there's also a risk of being late. If the bottom for the Chinese economy is in the second quarter of 2009, as Goldman Sachs now projects, then the global economy would start to pick up before the fourth quarter of 2009, and stocks would be likely to rally earlier than the fall of 2009.

So 2009 presents quite a strategic challenge.

In the first half -- or even three-quarters -- of 2009, you'll need to play defense. (But you don't want to be completely on the sidelines, just in case growth in China does bottom in the second quarter.) That means losing as little money as possible as stocks continue to founder while picking up a few percentage points of return here or there.

In the first part of 2009, I'd be very happy with anything like a 5% return from a stock portfolio. (Why not just stick it in supersafe Treasury bills or notes, you ask? Have you seen the yield on T-bills lately? It's as close to zero as you can get.)

Then toward the end of the year, move more of your portfolio to offense, without taking on a huge risk in case your timing is off. We know from the end of other bear markets that the first months of a bull market can produce explosive returns. But bear markets are notorious for producing final rallies that pull investors in and then fail, sending the early birds reeling to yet more losses.

Building a core

So what kind of stock picks could possibly work in that kind of uncertain and labyrinthine market? I'd suggest these 10 culled from the 50 in my new book, "The Jubak Picks." (I'll post the full list of 50 when the book comes out Dec. 30. This long-term portfolio will replace my existing 50 Best Stocks in the World list. You'll be able to find a link to it near the top in the left margin of every column, just under my 12- to 18-month portfolio.)

Why did I pick these 10 from the 50 in my book to be my best picks for 2009?

First, these stocks offer what I'd like to see now and for the next six to nine months: safety, a modest dividend return of at least 2% to 4% and some upside leverage if the global economy delivers a positive growth surprise. And second, they offer what I'd like to see for later: exposure to the most timely of the 10 long-term macro-investing trends that I describe in my book. (You can find a list of these 10 trends in my Oct. 21 column, "10 trends for long-term gains.") By buying these stocks, I start creating the core of a long-term portfolio for the five years or more after this bear market.

Use some cash to ease your way into positions in the five stocks in my picks for the first half of 2009 on dips in the stock market. Look for a stretch of days when the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is sitting near 840, which looks like a bottom for this stage of the bear at least.

Or you can also start to dollar-cost average into these stocks. That's an especially useful method if you are a beginning investor starting a portfolio.

Don't rush into investing all your cash. Remember this is still a high-risk bear market. And you want to have cash on hand to invest in my best stocks for the second half of 2009 when the time is right in the fall.

If you're a beginning investor or have moved all your cash to the sidelines, I'd suggest buying at a pace that puts about 25% of the cash that you ultimately want to devote to stocks into the market by mid-2009.

How to rebalance

If you're already invested, as I am in Jubak's Picks, I suggest rebalancing your existing portfolio using these dividend-paying stocks to replace other stocks in the sector that don't pay you to wait. If the stock allocation of your portfolio is already 50% or more in the market, I wouldn't recommend increasing that commitment to stocks now.

I've got Jubak's Picks at almost 50% in cash as of Dec. 16. That means I've got just 50% of my stock portfolio actually in stocks. (I run an all-stock portfolio on these pages. You, I assume, have some money in other instruments, such as bonds. I'm writing here only about the stock portion of your portfolio.) And I'm trying to keep my cash position at roughly that level even as I shift the portfolio to take advantage of the current opportunities in the market.

Think about gradually putting another 25% of your cash to work in the fall -- if it looks like the economic scenario that I outlined at the beginning of this column is working out as projected. Increase that buying if the recovery seems nearer than the end of 2009 -- or if we get a major "buy" signal from technical indicators. Hold off or slow down your buying if the economy sinks deeper and faster than economists currently project. Remember this second group of five stocks isn't designed to pay you to wait.

Don't try to hit a home run in 2009. You're likely to wind up whiffing. A solid single or two, maybe even a double, would be enough to turn 2009 into a better year for you than just about anybody expects right now.

Read the complete article here. 

At the time of publication, Jim Jubak owned or controlled shares of the following companies mentioned in this column: Deere, Enbridge, Flowserve, Goldcorp, Petrobras, Rayonier and Thompson Creek Metals. He did not hold short positions in any company mentioned.

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Posted: 16 month(s) and 12 days(s) ago   |   3 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 3 0
Posted by: WallStNick

There's a lot of great insight here, especially for investors interested in the tech sector. 

 What is a "strategic technology?"

Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.

These technologies impact the organization's long-term plans, programs and initiatives. They may be strategic because they have matured to broad market use or because they enable strategic advantage from early adoption.

“Strategic technologies affect, run, grow and transform the business initiatives of an organization,” said David Cearley, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “Companies should look at these 10 opportunities and evaluate where these technologies can add value to their business services and solutions, as well as develop a process for detecting and evaluating the business value of new technologies as they enter the market.”

The top 10 strategic technologies for 2009 include:

Virtualization.  Much of the current buzz is focused on server virtualization, but virtualization in storage and client devices is also moving rapidly. Virtualization to eliminate duplicate copies of data on the real storage devices while maintaining the illusion to the accessing systems that the files are as originally stored (data deduplication) can significantly decrease the cost of storage devices and media to hold information. Hosted virtual images deliver a near-identical result to blade-based PCs. But, instead of the motherboard function being located in the data center as hardware, it is located there as a virtual machine bubble. However, despite ambitious deployment plans from many organizations, deployments of hosted virtual desktop capabilities will be adopted by fewer than 40 percent of target users by 2010.

Cloud Computing. Cloud computing is a style of computing that characterizes a model in which providers deliver a variety of IT-enabled capabilities to consumers. They key characteristics of cloud computing are 1) delivery of capabilities “as a service,” 2) delivery of services in a highly scalable and elastic fashion, 3) using Internet technologies and techniques to develop and deliver the services, and 4) designing for delivery to external customers. Although cost is a potential benefit for small companies, the biggest benefits are the built-in elasticity and scalability, which not only reduce barriers to entry, but also enable these companies to grow quickly. As certain IT functions are industrializing and becoming less customized, there are more possibilities for larger organizations to benefit from cloud computing.

Servers — Beyond Blades.  Servers are evolving beyond the blade server stage that exists today. This evolution will simplify the provisioning of capacity to meet growing needs. The organization tracks the various resource types, for example, memory, separately and replenishes only the type that is in short supply. This eliminates the need to pay for all three resource types to upgrade capacity. It also simplifies the inventory of systems, eliminating the need to track and purchase various sizes and configurations. The result will be higher utilization because of lessened “waste” of resources that are in the wrong configuration or that come along with the needed processors and memory in a fixed bundle.

Web-Oriented Architectures. The Internet is arguably the best example of an agile, interoperable and scalable service-oriented environment in existence. This level of flexibility is achieved because of key design principles inherent in the Internet/Web approach, as well as the emergence of Web-centric technologies and standards that promote these principles. The use of Web-centric models to build global-class solutions cannot address the full breadth of enterprise computing needs. However, Gartner expects that continued evolution of the Web-centric approach will enable its use in an ever-broadening set of enterprise solutions during the next five years.

EnterpriseMashups. Enterprises are now investigating taking mashups from cool Web hobby to enterprise-class systems to augment their models for delivering and managing applications. Through 2010, the enterprise mashup product environment will experience significant flux and consolidation, and application architects and IT leaders should investigate this growing space for the significant and transformational potential it may offer their enterprises.

Specialized Systems. Appliances have been used to accomplish IT purposes, but only with a few classes of function have appliances prevailed. Heterogeneous systems are an emerging trend in high-performance computing to address the requirements of the most demanding workloads, and this approach will eventually reach the general-purpose computing market. Heterogeneous systems are also specialized systems with the same single-purpose imitations of appliances, but the heterogeneous system is a server system into which the owner installs software to accomplish its function.

Social Software and Social Networking. Social software includes a broad range of technologies, such as social networking, social collaboration, social media and social validation. Organizations should consider adding a social dimension to a conventional Web site or application and should adopt a social platform sooner, rather than later, because the greatest risk lies in failure to engage and thereby, being left mute in a dialogue where your voice must be heard.

Unified Communications. During the next five years, the number of different communications vendors with which a typical organization works with will be reduced by at least 50 percent. This change is driven by increases in the capability of application servers and the general shift of communications applications to common off-the-shelf server and operating systems. As this occurs, formerly distinct markets, each with distinct vendors, converge, resulting in massive consolidation in the communications industry. Organizations must build careful, detailed plans for when each category of communications function is replaced or converged, coupling this step with the prior completion of appropriate administrative team convergence.

Business Intelligence. Business Intelligence (BI), the top technology priority in Gartner’s 2008 CIO survey, can have a direct positive impact on a company’s business performance, dramatically improving its ability to accomplish its mission by making smarter decisions at every level of the business from corporate strategy to operational processes. BI is particularly strategic because it is directed toward business managers and knowledge workers who make up the pool of thinkers and decision makers that are tasked with running, growing and transforming the business. Tools that let these users make faster, better and more-informed decisions are particularly valuable in a difficult business environment.

Green IT. Shifting to more efficient products and approaches can allow for more equipment to fit within an energy footprint, or to fit into a previously filled center. Regulations are multiplying and have the potential to seriously constrain companies in building data centers, as the effect of power grids, carbon emissions from increased use and other environmental impacts are under scrutiny. Organizations should consider regulations and have alternative plans for data center and capacity growth.

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Posted: 16 month(s) and 20 days(s) ago   |   5 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 3 0
Posted by: WallStNick

For those of you that may have missed it, here's a transcript of President-elect Obama's victory speech: 

Hello, Chicago.

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

It's the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen, by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different, that their voices could be that difference.

It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled. Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been just a collection of individuals or a collection of red states and blue states.

We are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It's the answer that led those who've been told for so long by so many to be cynical and fearful and doubtful about what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this date in this election at this defining moment change has come to America.

A little bit earlier this evening, I received an extraordinarily gracious call from Sen. McCain.

Sen. McCain fought long and hard in this campaign. And he's fought even longer and harder for the country that he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine. We are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader.

I congratulate him; I congratulate Gov. Palin for all that they've achieved. And I look forward to working with them to renew this nation's promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart, and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on the train home to Delaware, the vice president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

And I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last 16 years the rock of our family, the love of my life, the nation's next first lady Michelle Obama.

Sasha and Malia I love you both more than you can imagine. And you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the new White House.

And while she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother's watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight. I know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

To my sister Maya, my sister Alma, all my other brothers and sisters, thank you so much for all the support that you've given me. I am grateful to them.

And to my campaign manager, David Plouffe, the unsung hero of this campaign, who built the best -- the best political campaign, I think, in the history of the United States of America.

To my chief strategist David Axelrod who's been a partner with me every step of the way.

To the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificed to get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington. It began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston. It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give $5 and $10 and $20 to the cause.

It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation's apathy who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep.

It drew strength from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on doors of perfect strangers, and from the millions of Americans who volunteered and organized and proved that more than two centuries later a government of the people, by the people, and for the people has not perished from the Earth.

This is your victory.

And I know you didn't do this just to win an election. And I know you didn't do it for me.

You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime -- two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.

Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us.

There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after the children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgage or pay their doctors' bills or save enough for their child's college education.

There's new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there.

I promise you, we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can't solve every problem.

But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it's been done in America for 221 years -- block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night.

This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were.

It can't happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of responsibility, where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves but each other.

Let us remember that, if this financial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers.

In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people. Let's resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long.

Let's remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House, a party founded on the values of self-reliance and individual liberty and national unity.

Those are values that we all share. And while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress.

As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, we are not enemies but friends. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection.

And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces, to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of the world, our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand.

To those -- to those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security: We support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright: Tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope.

That's the true genius of America: that America can change. Our union can be perfected. What we've already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that's on my mind tonight's about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing: Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons -- because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her century in America -- the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a time when women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs, a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "We Shall Overcome." Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination.

And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change.

Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves -- if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment.This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.

Thank you. God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.

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Posted: 16 month(s) and 22 days(s) ago   |   6 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 2 0
Posted by: WallStNick

I was listening to the Howard Stern show a few weeks ago and heard an alarming bit.

One of the Stern staffers armed with a tape recorder ventured through the streets of Harlem and asked African American voters who they were casting their ballot for. As expected, the majority were Obama supporters.

Here's the twist: The Stern show staffer asked the Obama supporters about Obama's policies--remaining in Iraq until we win the war, and his staunch opposition of embroynic stem cell research.

Oh wait, those are McCain's policies. Nevertheless, the Obama supporters seemed to be in favor of staying in Iraq, and one was even quoted as saying "I'm anti stem-cell."

This kind of ignorance is infuriating. The fact that uninformed voters will choose the next President is scary. There are immigrants seeking U.S. citizenship who know more about this country than American citizens who have lived here their whole lives.  

Now, i'm not saying uninformed opinions don't matter. I'm just saying that they shouldn't carry as much weight as informed ones.

Here are a few excerpts from an article that was published in the Orlando Sentinel in November 1998:

"The purpose of voting, in our country, is to select men and women with the competence and integrity to operate the mechanics of government fixed by our Constitution. For this process to have any public benefit requires that the choices be made on an intelligent, knowledgeable and reasoned basis."

 "It has become standard operating procedure for candidates to lie not only about themselves but about their opponents. If they have the money, candidates even hire people who are professional experts in lies and deceptions. Candidates base campaign positions not on beliefs or convictions but on polling data. This blatant deception has become so accepted as part of the process that television networks think nothing of hiring professional campaign deceivers as campaign commentators. At the same time, politicians, knowing that an ignorant voter is the best defense against accountability, have encouraged universal registration without regard for patriotism, interest or knowledge on the part of voters."

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Posted: 19 month(s) and 6 days(s) ago   |   1 Comment(s)   |   Rating: 0 0
Posted by: WallStNick

The Motley Fool published an article today with a few wise words for investors thinking about building a well-performing portfolio.

The focus of the article was diversification--making sure the stocks in your portfolio span market caps, sectors, geographies and styles. This should help reduce the overall volatility of your portfolio, and your potential losses. But make sure not to over diversify. "A portfolioconcentrated around a smaller group of stocks.... has the opportunity to outperform the market," the article stated.

This kind of concentrated diversification strategy has worked pretty well for the Oracle of Omaha. "In the 1970s, (Warren Buffett) invested $11 million in the Washington Post, which has turned into more than $1 billion. In teh wake of Black Monday in the late 1980s, Buffett started buying Coca-Cola--an investment that has earned some 15% annual returns," the article stated.

According to Peter Lynch, onetime head of Fidelity Magellan, "It only takes a handful of big winners to make a lifetime of investing worthwhile."  

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