You know how on TV they always show these tech savvy kids giving their elders a hard time because they don't know what how to use a computer? Well, look out gramps, because if you're not careful, that tech savvy kid could be coming after you next.
According to a story by the Associated Press, personal computers are starting to get phased out in Japan, with younger consumers choosing smartphones and multi-functional handheld devices over traditional computers.
"Japan's PC market is already shrinking, leading analysts to wonder whether Japan will become the first major market to see a decline in personal computer use some 25 years after it revolutionized household electronics -- and whether this could be the picture of things to come in other countries."
Overall PC shipments in Japan have fallen for five consecutive quarters, the first ever drawn-out decline in PC sales in a key market, according to IDC. The trend shows no signs of letting up: In the second quarter of 2007, desktops fell 4.8 percent and laptops 3.1 percent.
Honestly, I don't see how computers can be completely phased out of a technologically modern society, even if it's one that is as advanced as Japan. But then again, that's probably what people said about cassette tapes and VCRs less than a decade ago.
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think college or high school students can hunker down in front of a smartphone to type out a multi-paged term paper or do some meaningful research like they can an actual computer.
Using handheld devices as a replacement for PCs makes sense from a consumer/leisure standpoint, but when it comes to actual work, I don't see how it trumps a computer. Yet, anyway.
So, I'll have to reserve judgement until I see it done with my own eyes.
Of course, the computer companies are saying that a shift toward handheld multi-media devices is not really happening.
PC makers beg to differ, and they're aggressively marketing their products in the countries where they're seeing the most sales growth -- places where residents have never had a PC. The industry is responding in two other ways: reminding detractors that computers are still essential in linking the digital universe and releasing several laptops priced below $300 this holiday shopping season.
And, though Sales in the U.S. are slowing too, booming demand in the industrializing world is expected to buoy worldwide PC shipments 11 percent to an all-time high of 286 million in 2007. And, outside Japan, Asia is a key growth area, with second-quarter sales jumping 21.9 percent this year.
I don't think that's the same as a shift not happening though. Just because you're replacing consumers from one market with another, doesn't mean that there isn't a change occuring and that demand for computers aren't dropping.
Emerging markets are always attractive because there's always a lot of potential for growth, but there's a reason why those markets weren't tapped to begin with. To get those consumers to buy the products, you have to slash prices into their price range. How much lower can you go?
PCs Losing Their Relevance in Japan (Full Article on Yahoo! Finance)